Tropical Storm Melissa to Become a Major Hurricane in Caribbean, Officials Forecast

Tropical Storm Melissa is set to become a major hurricane in the coming days as the storm appears unlikely to hit the United States, forecasters said on Wednesday.

Melissa is currently located in the central Caribbean Sea, drifting to the west-northwest. The storm is located about 300 miles south-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti, and 325 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC).

“The day 5 forecast now shows Melissa becoming a major hurricane, and further upward adjustments may be necessary in subsequent cycles,” the agency said in a discussion on Wednesday. “The intensity forecast is also more uncertain than usual, in large part related to the track uncertainty.”

Melissa was expected to strengthen into a hurricane by Friday and approach Jamaica and southwest Haiti later this week. Hurricane conditions are possible in southern Haiti starting late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions possibly starting to affect Jamaica late Thursday or on Friday, the center has said.

Hurricane and tropical storm watches were issued for parts of Haiti and Jamaica as the storm is expected to reach major hurricane status—meaning a Category 3 or greater—on Monday morning. At that point, Melissa is forecast to be located a few hundred miles to the south of Jamaica and hundreds of miles to the east of Honduras and Nicaragua. After that, it’s not clear.

“Melissa is expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Jamaica through this weekend, bringing a risk of significant flash flooding and landslides,” the NHC said in the discussion.

The NHC noted that there is currently “significant uncertainty in the track and intensity forecast of Melissa” and that interests in Hispaniola, the island where Haiti and the Dominican Republic are located, and Cuba are advised to monitor the latest forecasts.

Dominican President Luis Abinader announced that schools in nine provinces under alert would close on Wednesday and Thursday, and that businesses have been urged to close by early Wednesday afternoon. Officials also urged those living in flood-prone areas to seek higher ground ahead of the storm.

The storm is forecast to bring 5 to 10 inches of rain to the southern Dominican Republic, southern Haiti, and eastern Jamaica through Saturday. Significant flash flooding and landslides are possible.

Across the northern Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and western Jamaica, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected through Saturday, officials said.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which started on June 1, lasts until Nov. 30. Melissa is the 13th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, and the first named storm to form in the Caribbean this year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had predicted an above-normal season with 13 to 18 named storms. Of those, five to nine were forecast to become hurricanes, including two to five major hurricanes, which pack winds of 111 mph or greater.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.