Commercial traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait fell to its lowest level in months on July 26, shipping data showed, as Yemen’s Houthi forces continued attacks and threats against Saudi-linked shipping despite a pause in U.S.–Iran military strikes.
Eleven commodity vessels passed through the narrow waterway linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden on Sunday, according to Kpler data. Seven were oil tankers, including three that entered the Red Sea.
The slowdown followed Houthi claims that the group struck Saudi Aramco facilities in the Red Sea cities of Jizan and Yanbu on July 25, after Saudi-led coalition forces hit Houthi targets in Yemen’s port city of Hodeidah.
The renewed disruption threatens a route that has become more important for Saudi crude exports as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sharply reduced amid the U.S.–Iran conflict.
Ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have prompted Riyadh to export most of its oil via the Red Sea, rather than through the Persian Gulf, where Tehran has been asserting control, menacing ships that try to avoid Iran-controlled waters by transiting along a U.S.-backed southern route near the Omani coast.
The Kpler data showed that the Red Sea crude shipping route remained open, but with diminished traffic and heightened caution among shipowners, insurers, and traders.
“While there are signs of de-escalation between the US and Iran, the Houthis in Yemen stepped up their attacks on Saudi Arabia,” ING analysts wrote in a July 27 note. “The Houthis claimed to have attacked a number of targets in the country, including energy facilities in Jazan and Yanbu. Amid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has been exporting the bulk of its crude oil from Yanbu on the Red Sea.”
President Donald Trump on July 26 paused U.S. strikes on Iran for a second straight day, while Tehran said it had halted its own attacks as negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz intensified.
Oil prices fell sharply on July 27 on hopes that the U.S.–Iran pause could create space for diplomacy, with the global benchmark Brent crude at one point plunging by more than 13 percent at around 6:15 am ET to trade near $85.54 per barrel.
Brent briefly jumped above $100 last week as the conflict threatened simultaneous disruption at Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb.
Boats float near the coast of Bab el-Mandeb, Yemen, on April 2, 2026. (Reuters)
“The price action in oil this morning clearly reflects the market’s desperation for positive news,” ING analysts wrote, adding that shipping flows through Hormuz remain constrained, and a rebound in crude prices could come if there’s another uptick in hostilities.
“We’re unlikely to see any recovery until there’s clarity on whether this de-escalation is more permanent and whether vessels can navigate the strait without fear of attack.”
Iran has not asked to resume talks with the United States to end the war, and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains unchanged, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told reporters at a July 27 press briefing, suggesting that the path to a diplomatic resolution remains rocky.
Despite pausing strikes on Iran, Trump on Sunday posted a series of memes on Truth Social signaling that the threat of escalation remains, including an image of an Iran-flagged tanker being taken over by U.S. forces and another of a key Iranian island in Hormuz being bombed.
Trump earlier warned the Houthis of “major military punishment” if they continued to disrupt maritime trade through the Red Sea.
Houthi-Saudi Tensions
The Houthis declared a blockade of Saudi trade through Bab el-Mandeb on July 20 and later claimed responsibility for attacks on the Saudi-flagged tankers Encelia and Layla several days later.
The Houthis said the attacks were part of a campaign to pressure Saudi Arabia, which has led a coalition that has fought the Iran-aligned group in Yemen since 2015.
On July 26, the Houthis said they shot down a Turkish-made Bayraktar Akinci armed reconnaissance drone belonging to Saudi Arabia over Yemen. The group released footage that it said showed the aircraft being downed, describing the drone’s actions as hostile.
Huthi spokesman Brigadier Yahya Saree arrives to deliver a statement during a rally in Sanaa in solidarity with Palestinians on March 15, 2024. (Mohammed Huwais/AFP via Getty Images)
The drone incident, which could not be independently verified, came amid renewed Saudi-Houthi clashes after months of relatively limited fighting.
Saudi coalition forces said Sunday that they struck targets in Hodeidah in response to the July 22 attack on the Encelia, while the Houthis said they retaliated with missiles and drones aimed at Aramco sites.
The escalation has also affected insurance availability. Several leading marine-war insurers in the Lloyd’s of London market told brokers they would no longer provide cargo war-risk cover to Saudi-linked vessels in the Red Sea, according to brokers who recently spoke to The Financial Times.
Marcus Baker, global head of marine and cargo at Marsh, told the FT that Saudi Arabia could be moving into a higher-risk category alongside vessels with links to the United States, the UK, and Israel, which already face increased premiums for Red Sea transits.
Reuters contributed to this report.
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