US Retail Sales Blow Past Expectations on Higher Gas Station Receipts

U.S. retail sales rose for a consecutive month and blew past Wall Street expectations as consumers spent more at the pump.

Retail sales increased by 0.8 percent last month, from an upwardly revised 1.3 percent in August, according to new Census Bureau data released on Oct. 15.

Economists had forecast a modest 0.3 percent increase.

On a 12-month basis, retail sales climbed to 6.3 percent, from a downwardly adjusted 5.6 percent.

But receipts at gasoline stations, which soared 6.4 percent, largely drove the solid print.

Motorists have been contending with elevated gas prices over the last several months.

As of Oct. 15, the national average for a gallon of gas is $4.33, up from $3.07 a year ago, according to the American Automobile Association.

This has been contributing to greater price pressures, with the annual consumer inflation rate advancing to 3.7 percent in September.

Spending in other categories was tepid, led by furniture stores (1.3 percent), food services and drinking places (1.1 percent), and health and personal care stores (0.7 percent).

Excluding auto dealers and gas stations, retail sales rose just 0.2 percent.

Additionally, the retail sales control group—a narrower subset of categories that contribute to the gross domestic product (GDP)—rose 0.1 percent, far below the consensus forecast of 0.3 percent.

Different Picture

Private-sector data alternatives show consumer demand remains resilient despite various headwinds.

The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor found that retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, rose 0.3 percent month over month and 4 percent year over year.

Core retail sales—excluding restaurants, automotives, and gas stations—rose 0.3 percent month over month and were up 4 percent from a year ago.

With budget-conscious households trying to stretch their dollar, retailers are adapting to current economic conditions by prioritizing affordability and using promotions and value pricing, says Matthew Shay, president and CEO at the National Retail Federation.

“Retail sales rose again last month as consumers continued to spend following a solid back-to-school shopping season,” Shay said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Bank of America said consumer spending “remained very solid” last month.

Internal credit and debit card spending per household rose more than 6 percent year over year.

Excluding gas station receipts, card spending was up about 5 percent.

“One striking thing about recent card spending, in our view, is that it is well balanced across categories,” Bank of America strategists said in its latest Consumer Checkpoint report.

“Retail spending is showing notably better momentum than in 2025.”

At the start of third-quarter earnings season this week, Wall Street banks generally gave the consumer a good bill of health, pointing to strong average credit card demand.

Citigroup reported U.S. card spending rose 11 percent year over year, while JPMorgan Chase’s average credit card loans jumped 7 percent from a year earlier.

“Our data shows that our consumer and business customers are doing well,” Wells Fargo CEO Charlie Scharf said in an earnings call with analysts on Oct. 13.

“Consumers are spending more, loan delinquencies are low, and deposit and investment balances have grown.”

But consumers do not share that same level of optimism.

The University of Michigan’s October Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a five-month low amid cost-of-living frustrations. The one-year inflation outlook also ticked up to 4.7 percent.

Despite weakening consumer confidence, industry experts anticipate shoppers will be in the holiday spirit.

The Mastercard Economics Institute forecasts that retail sales—between Nov. 1 and Dec. 24—will increase 5.5 percent from a year ago.

Online sales will dominate, but in-store shopping is expected to rebound to a four-year high.

At the same time, prices will play a role.

“MEI estimates about half the growth in spending will be due to higher prices—a pattern across recent holiday seasons, though this year it’s elevated energy costs and AI-driven demand behind it,” the report stated.