The third Republican debate starts at 8 P.M and lasts until 10 P.M. Held at a performing arts venue in Miami, it will take place opposite a competing event held by former President Donald Trump in nearby Hialeah, Florida.
The field of debaters is still large but shrinking fast. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador and South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.), former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy will face off at the event moderated by NBC’s Lester Holt and Kristen Welker as well as conservative radio host Hugh Hewitt, of the Salem Radio Network.
It’s hard to predict everything that will happen, although the most remote possibilities can likely be ruled out. (No one is betting billionaire North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum will parachute into the Adrienne Arsht Center at the last minute after failing to make the cut.) On the other hand, with Israel, the Nov. 7 elections, and other topics dominating the news, it’s possible to anticipate more than a few questions—as well as a few plausible maneuvers by the non-Trump candidates struggling to distinguish themselves.
Here are some things to expect:
Abortion an Electoral Vulnerability
The passage of Issue 1 in Ohio on Nov. 7, creating a constitutional right to abortion, was one of multiple election results that day that looked like failures for anti-abortion activists in the Republican Party. For example, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, a Democrat, won reelection after drawing frequent attention to his opponent’s strongly anti-abortion stance.
There were other cases where pro-life candidates won—for instance, the reelection of Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, a Republican who signed a heartbeat bill. Some commentators have tied candidates’ losses to endorsements by President Trump.
Whatever the case may be, the results have elevated abortion to the forefront of the conversation among Republicans. Even as abortion restrictions are supported, they may have to reckon with the fact that they’re electoral losers, at least in some circumstances.
Watch for questions about support for national restrictions, such as a 15-week ban. Listen closely to any cross-talk among candidates who may want to sound anti-abortion to Republican viewers while not necessarily committing themselves to the strictest limitations.
Israel and Foreign Policy
Amid a war between Israel and Hamas, foreign policy is at the forefront of American and Republican politics.
In the first two debates, held before the current conflict started, Mr. Ramaswamy came under fire for his talk of possibly scaling back foreign aid to Israel.
Don’t look for much in the way of similar talk from him on Nov. 8. After his speech at the Republican Jewish Coalition’s summit in Las Vegas last month, Mr. Ramaswamy posted on X that the Middle Eastern country is “a Divine nation charged with a Divine purpose.”
Still, as the Republicans in Miami compete to demonstrate who among them is friendliest to Israel, Ms. Haley, Mr. Christie, and others may challenge him on the issue again. Don’t expect as much talk of Ukraine or China during this debate.
Look for questions and answers about civilian casualties, the conditions for a ceasefire, the role of Turkey, Iran, and Qatar, violence against Muslim and Jewish Americans, and the scope of American military involvement in the war as the United States deploys troops, carrier groups, and other assets.
The questions may present an opportunity for some candidates to challenge Ms. Haley, whose position has generally gained support through the debates. On the other hand, the Republican Party and the older members of its base, unlike the broader American public and much of the wider world, is closely aligned with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and his Likud Party. Candidates may hold their fire and take aim at Ms. Haley on other, safer issues.
Trump, Trump, and More Trump
President Trump won’t be there, but you can expect candidates to be asked many questions about him, specifically including the indictments and other legal troubles he faces.
Just today, President Trump’s daughter, Ivanka Trump, testified today in a civil fraud trial against the Trump Organization.
Look for moderators to press Mr. DeSantis, Mr. Ramaswamy, and other hopefuls to speak more critically about President Trump. In particular, look for questions about claims by President Trump that legacy media sources often classify in broad terms as mis- or disinformation—for example, his assertion that the 2020 election was stolen from him.
Airtime for Chris Christie
Mr. Christie can be counted on to challenge President Trump in very direct terms, as he did in the first and second debates.
Pay attention to how often he speaks and how long he is permitted to make his points without being interrupted.
Mr. Christie may introduce, or reintroduce, slogans and talking points intended to antagonize the former president—for instance, the nickname “Donald Duck.”
Race
American politics have dramatically re-racialized in recent decades. The questions that dominate American life increasingly reflect that, down to the identity of the person permitted or encouraged to ask them.
During the second presidential primary debate, for instance, Univision anchor Ilia Calderón asked multiple questions closely connected to the Latino bloc and its real or perceived interests.
Look for Mr. Holt and Ms. Welker to challenge the candidates on racial issues. Look for candidates to walk a tightrope. In the case of non-white hopefuls, appeals to their ethnic and racial identities where politically convenient will have to be mixed with appeals to colorblind ideals. The white minority on stage, Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Christie, will have to pull off the latter without sounding like they’re living in 2003.
Tim Scott Seeking the Veep Look
While most candidates appear to be gunning for the top spot, Mr. Scott’s path forward looks a little different.
It would be surprising if Mr. Scott speaks very negatively about President Trump, the man who could conceivably choose him as his running mate.
Mr. Christie will no doubt attack President Trump, and Mr. DeSantis, Ms. Haley, and Mr. Ramaswamy may need to challenge him and their competitors to stand out as the field narrows.
Watch for Mr. Scott to look vice presidential and fly under the radar. Afterwards, check how many minutes he spoke.
Friends Read Free
Copy
Facebook
Tweet
