Confidence and Supply Deal With Liberals Hurt NDP in April Election, Party’s Review Finds

The federal NDP concluded in a recent internal review that one reason the New Democrats lost significant voter support in the 2025 election was that the party had associated itself “too closely” with the Liberal government during the previous parliamentary session.

Released on Dec. 19, the NDP’s “Review and Renewal Report” says the party’s Confidence and Supply Agreement (CASA) with the Trudeau Liberals led many supporters to distance themselves from the party. The deal, which lasted from March 2022 to September 2024, was forged to support the minority Liberals on confidence votes in exchange for the government introducing key support programs, including national dental care and pharmacare.

“In some parts of the country, not only did the Party not reap any electoral rewards for the results accomplished through the CASA — it was punished,” said the report, as first covered by Blacklock’s Reporter.

“In some regions, voters told our candidates and volunteers that because of CASA the NDP was too closely linked to Justin Trudeau, whose deep unpopularity had rendered him toxic to many voters,” it added.

The NDP’s 24-member caucus was reduced to seven in the April 28 election, causing the party to lose official status in the House of Commons—its worst performance since 1935. A political party must have at least 12 members in the House of Commons to be a “recognized party” for parliamentary proceedings purposes.

The report, which also cited a wide range of external factors working against the New Democrats, said “voter persuasion” was already “weak” prior to the federal election.

“Many people we heard from felt that the 2025 election was lost before it began,” said the report, submitted by Ottawa lawyer Emilie Taman, a former NDP candidate. “Messaging in general, and around the Confidence and Supply Agreement in particular, was almost universally seen as weak and confusing.”

The NDP, under former Leader Jagmeet Singh, continued to support the Liberals on key confidence votes initiated by the Conservatives even after the agreement ended on Sept. 4, 2024. This continued until former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his plan to resign and prorogued Parliament in January. Mark Carney then became Liberal leader and prime minister in March and called an election shortly thereafter. Singh lost his own seat in the April election and soon after announced his resignation.

‘Identity Politics’

Taman wrote in the Dec. 19 report that the NDP’s election campaign “exposed a growing operational, political, and cultural distance” between the party and working-class Canadians.

“The Party is not seen as leading with work, wages, jobs, industry, and economic security — the issues workers vote on,” said Taman, whose findings include interviews with former and current NDP MPs, party organizers, and supporters conducted between July and November.

“While former and current caucus members tended to dispute this based on their parliamentary work, the perception is there and cannot be ignored.”

The report’s findings echoed comments by Interim Leader Don Davies on an Aug. 28 podcast, in which he also said the party has become too focused on “identity politics” and has lost its ability to resonate with working people in recent years.

“What is it about us where we were unable to resonate, unable to connect, with working people? One of the questions is, have we veered too much from our class-based analysis to identity politics?” Davies asked. “My own view, this is just me speaking, is that we have.”

Davies said he still sees issues such as gender identity as important but noted that there needs to be more “balance” and that the party’s current status offers an opportunity to rebuild.

“When we’re talking about drag reading in libraries or [transgender] women in sports, those issues may have their own impact or import,” he said at the time, adding: “I don’t think we’re talking about the real issues that most working people are struggling with. Can they pay their rent? Can they buy a house? Can they buy groceries?”

The Dec. 19 report said that to reconnect with working-class voters, the New Democrats must present “a crisp, values-driven story” months before the election in order to differentiate the NDP on issues such as affordability, public services, and the environment.

It also concluded, among other determinations, that voters had adopted a “Trump/Poilievre/Carney” mindset long before the campaign began in March, and that the NDP “failed to articulate its own theory of change” and thus “missed opportunities for early identity-building.”

Omid Ghoreishi and Paul Rowan Brian contributed to this report.