Presentations, studies, and other data showing risk–benefit estimates and rates of myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination.
Key:
CDC = U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
FDA = U.S. Food and Drug Administration
US = American researchers from outside the government
Risk–Benefit Estimates
June 23, 2021 (pdf) and July 6, 2021 (CDC)
Males 12–17 per million second Pfizer doses
Risks: 56–69 myocarditis cases
Benefits: 5,700 COVID-19 cases, 215 hospitalizations, and two deaths prevented
Males 18–24 per million second doses
Risks: 45–56 myocarditis cases
Benefits: 12,000 COVID-19 cases, 530 hospitalizations, and three deaths prevented
Aug. 10, 2021 (CDC)
Males 18–29 per million second doses
Risks: 22–27 myocarditis cases
Benefits: 300 hospitalizations and three deaths prevented
Sept. 8, 2021 (US)
Males 12–15 without medical comorbidities after second Pfizer doses:
Risks: 162.2 cardiac adverse events per million
Benefits: 15 hospitalizations per million prevented
Males 16–17 without medical comorbidities after second Pfizer doses
Risks: 94 cardiac adverse events per million
Benefits: 21 hospitalizations per million prevented
Oct. 26, 2021 (pdf) (FDA)
Males 5–11 per million Pfizer doses
Risks: 89–179 excess myocarditis cases, 78–156 excess myocarditis hospitalizations
Benefits: 2,639–57,857 prevented COVID-19 cases, 21–254 prevented COVID-19 hospitalizations, 0–3 prevented COVID-19 deaths
Males 12–15 per million Pfizer doses
Risks: 179 excess myocarditis cases, 156 excess myocarditis hospitalizations
Benefits: 77,649 prevented COVID-19 cases, 318 prevented COVID-19 hospitalizations, three prevented COVID-19 deaths
Males 16–17 per million Pfizer doses
Risks: 196 excess myocarditis cases, 63 excess myocarditis hospitalizations
Benefits: 92,691 prevented COVID-19 cases, 813 prevented COVID-19 hospitalizations, 13 prevented COVID-19 deaths
Females 5–11 per million Pfizer doses
Risks: 16–32 excess myocarditis cases, 14–28 excess myocarditis hospitalizations
Benefits: 45,063 prevented COVID-19 cases, 172 prevented COVID-19 hospitalizations, one prevented COVID-19 death
Females 12–15 per million Pfizer doses
Risks: 32 excess myocarditis cases, 28 excess myocarditis hospitalizations
Benefits: 82,495 prevented COVID-19 cases, 466 prevented COVID-19 hospitalizations, one prevented COVID-19 death
Females 16–17 per million Pfizer doses
Risks: 36 excess myocarditis cases, 31 excess myocarditis hospitalizations
Benefits: 109,796 prevented COVID-19 cases, 1,144 prevented COVID-19 hospitalizations, seven prevented COVID-19 deaths
In one scenario (scenario 3), excess hospitalizations and ICU stays are higher than prevented hospitalizations and ICU stays.
Nov. 1, 2021 (England)
12–17 over 16 weeks of vaccination
Risks: 160 cases of myocarditis
Benefits: Up to 4,590 hospital admissions and 36 deaths prevented
April 26, 2022 (FDA)
Males 16–17 per million Pfizer doses
Risks: 98–196 myocarditis cases
Benefits: 13,577 COVID-19 cases, 127 COVID-19 hospitalizations, and one death prevented
In two of three scenarios, excess hospitalizations are higher than prevented hospitalizations.
Aug. 11, 2022 (Australia)
Males 12–19 per million doses
Risks: 146 myocarditis cases
Benefits: 11,029–110,288 symptomatic cases and 1–11 deaths prevented
Dec. 5, 2022 (US)
18–29
Per COVID-19 hospitalization prevented, 18.5 serious adverse events, including 1.5–4.6 myopericarditis cases in males
June 15, 2023 (FDA)
Males 18–25 per million Moderna doses
Risks: 68–241 myocarditis cases, 58–207 myocarditis hospitalizations
Benefits: 3,903-219,958 COVID-19 cases, 635–5,957 COVID-19 hospitalizations, 7–63 COVID-19 deaths prevented
Incidence
Incidence of myocarditis and/or pericarditis following COVID-19 vaccination. Incidence based on health care records. Some rates exclude pericarditis. “Reported cases” is used if based on reports. Some reports excluded for not meeting case definition.
May 31, 2021 (pdf) (Israel)
Males 16-19 after second Pfizer dose
One case per 6,637 doses
Males 20-24 after second Pfizer dose
One case per 9,208 doses
June 23, 2021 (pdf) and July 6, 2021 (CDC)
Males 12–17 after second Pfizer dose
62.8 reported cases per million
Males 18–24 after second dose
50.5 reported cases per million
Sept. 3, 2021 (CDC, etc.)
12–39 after first dose
104.2 cases per one million person years
12–39 after second dose
569.5 cases per one million person years
Oct. 6, 2021 (Israel)
Males 16–29 after first Pfizer dose
Pfizer: 106.9 per million
Males 30 and older after first Pfizer dose
Pfizer: 21 per million
Oct. 6, 2021 (Israel)
Males 16–19 after second Pfizer dose
Pfizer: 150 per million
Males 20–24 after second Pfizer dose
106 per million
Males 25–29 after second Pfizer dose
69 per million
Males 30–39 after second Pfizer dose
36 per million
Nov. 2, 2021 (Denmark)
Males 12–17 per million doses
97 cases, or 1 in 10,000 doses
Females 12–17 per million doses
16 cases, or 1 in 63,000 doses
Nov. 28, 2021 (Hong Kong)
Males 12–17 after second Pfizer dose
373 per million
Females 12–17
47 per million
Dec. 14, 2021 (England)
Under 40 after second dose
Pfizer: Excess of three per million
Moderna: Excess of five per million
After positive test: 10 per million
Dec. 16, 2021 (Nordic)
12–39
Pfizer: 16 per million
Moderna: 57 per million
Dec. 25, 2021 (UK)
Males under 40 after second dose
Pfizer: 12 per million
AstraZeneca: 14 per million
Moderna: 101 per million
After positive test: 7 per million
Males under 40 after third Pfizer dose
13 per million
Dec. 27, 2021 (US)
Males 12–39 after second dose
195.4 per million
Jan. 25, 2022 (CDC)
Males 12–15 after second Pfizer dose
70.7 reported cases per million
Expected: 0.5 per million
Males 16–17 after second Pfizer dose
105.8 reported cases per million
Expected: 1.3 per million
Males 18–24 after second dose
Pfizer: 52.4 reported cases per million
Moderna: 56.3 reported cases per million
Expected: 1.7 per million
Males 25–29 after second dose
Pfizer: 17.2 reported cases per million
Moderna: 24.1 reported cases per million
Expected: 1.4 per million
Jan. 26, 2022 (Israel)
Males 12–15 after second dose
80 per million (1 per 12,361)
Feb. 23, 2022 (Singapore)
Males 12–19
48 reported cases per million
Feb. 25, 2022 (Hong Kong)
Males 12–17 after second Pfizer dose
390 per million (1 in 2,563)
Females 12-17 after second Pfizer dose
49 per million (1 in 20,121)
No new cases after introduction of single dose policy
Males 16–24 after second dose
Pfizer then Pfizer: 55 excess per million
Pfizer then Moderna: 274 excess per million
Moderna then Moderna: 183 excess per million
Males 25–39 after second dose
Pfizer then Pfizer: 5.9 excess per million
Pfizer then Moderna: 113 per million
Moderna then Moderna: 80 excess per million
June 11, 2022 (FDA)
Males 18–25 after second dose
Pfizer: 170 per million person days
Moderna: 21 per million person days
June 23, 2022 (pdf) (CDC)
Males 12–15 after second dose
Pfizer: 46.4 per million
Males 16–17 after second dose
Pfizer: 75.9 per million
June 25, 2022 (France)
Males 12–17 after second dose
Pfizer: 19 excess cases per million (1 case per 52,300)
Males 18–24 after second dose
Pfizer: 47 excess cases per million (1 case per 21,100)
Moderna: 170 excess cases per million (1 case per 5,900)
Males 25–29 after second dose
Pfizer: (1 case per 47,000)
Moderna: (1 case per 9,400)
Females 18–24 after second dose
Pfizer: 6.3 excess cases per million (1 case per 159,000)
Moderna: 53 excess cases per million (1 case per 18,700)
June 28, 2022 (Australia)
Males 12–17 after first dose
44 reported per million
Males 12–17 after second dose
242 reported per million
Females 12–17 after second dose
43 reported per million
July 14, 2022 (CDC)
5–11 after Pfizer dose
2.7 per million
July 20, 2022 (US)
18–39 after second dose
7.84 incidence rate ratio (compared to baseline)
18–39 after third dose
5.11 incidence rate ratio (compared to baseline)
July 26, 2022 (Denmark)
5–11 after Pfizer dose
4.8 per million
Background rate: 1 per million
12–17 after Pfizer dose
57 per million
Background rate: 17 per million
July 28, 2022 (Italy)
Males 12–39 after first dose
Pfizer: None
Moderna: 38 excess per million
Males 12–39 after second dose
Pfizer: 10 excess per million
Moderna: 88 excess per million
July 30, 2022 (Canada)
Males 18–29 after second dose
Pfizer: 31 reported per million
Moderna: 162 reported per million
Males 30–39 after dose 2
Pfizer: 9 reported per million
Moderna: 34 reported per million
Females 18–29 after dose 2
Pfizer: 7 reported cases per million
Moderna: 26 reported cases per million
Sept. 6, 2022 (Israel)
Males 16–19 after second Pfizer dose
148.9 per million
Males 16–19 after third Pfizer dose
64 per million
Males 20–24 after second Pfizer dose
108 per million
Males 20–24 after third Pfizer dose
54 per million
Males 25–29 after second Pfizer dose
83 per million
Females 20–24 after second Pfizer dose
20 per million
Oct. 4, 2022 (CDC)
Males 12–15 after second Pfizer dose
150.5 per million
Males 16–17 after second Pfizer dose
137.1 per million
Males 16–17 after third Pfizer dose
188 per million
Males 18–29 after second dose
Pfizer: 81.4 per million
Moderna: 97 per million
Males 18–29 after third dose
Pfizer: 36.4 per million
Moderna: 64 per million
Females 12–15 after second Pfizer dose
24.5 per 100,000
Females 16–17 after third Pfizer dose
36.4 per 100,000
Oct. 30, 2022 (Japan)
Males 10–19 after Moderna second dose
41 times as many reported as expected
Males 20–29 after Moderna second dose
16.8 times as many reported as expected
Nov. 7, 2022 (Canada)
Males 18–29 after second dose
Pfizer: 89.7 per million
Moderna: 310 per million
Males 30–39 after second dose
Pfizer: 28.4 per million
Moderna: 94.3 per million
Females 18–29 after second dose
Pfizer: 9.6 per million
Moderna: 68.5 per million
Females 30–39 after second dose
Pfizer: 10 per million
Moderna: 41.7 per million
Nov. 24, 2022 (Europe)
Under 30
Pfizer: 32.2 excess cases per million
Moderna: 33.7 excess cases per million
Feb. 8, 2023 (Taiwan)
Males 12–17 after first Pfizer dose
43 reported per million
Males 12–17 after second Pfizer dose
126.7 reported per million
Males 18–24 after second dose
Pfizer: 29.8 reported per million
Moderna: 93.8 reported per million
Males 25–29 after first dose
Pfizer: 3 reported per million
Moderna: 22.7 reported per million
Males 25–29 after second dose
Pfizer: 19 reported per million
Moderna: 78.5 reported per million
Feb. 27, 2023 (Canada)
Males 12–15 after second Pfizer dose
84 reported per million
Males 16–17 after first Pfizer dose
77 reported per million
Males 16–17 after second Pfizer dose
157 reported per million
March 24, 2023 (Canada)
Males 18–29 after second dose
Pfizer: 53.2 per million
Moderna: 224 per million
Males 18–29 after third dose
Pfizer: 18.6 per million
Moderna: 39 per million
March 28, 2023 (Thailand)
Males 12–17 after second Pfizer dose
44 reported per million
April 15, 2023 (Malaysia)
Males 12–17 after first Pfizer dose
7 per million
Males 12–17 after second Pfizer dose
9.5 per million
April 21, 2023 (CDC, FDA)
Males 12–15 after second Pfizer dose
48.3 reported per million
Males 16–17 after second Pfizer dose
84 reported per million
June 13, 2023 (South Korea)
Under 19 after third dose
Pfizer: 82 reported per million
Moderna: 31 reported per million