Europe Has 5 Months Supply of Jet Fuel, Dutch Government Says

The Dutch government on April 20 estimated that the European Union could supply enough kerosene ​to the EU’s economy to last about five months.

In a letter to parliament, it said the available supply of kerosene, used as jet fuel, is currently about 78 percent of normal levels, reflecting a roughly 22 percent disruption after imports were cut off due to supply issues caused by the ongoing U.S.–Israeli war with Iran.

The government said that if supply disruptions remain unchanged, current demand can be fully met for five months for kerosene and for more than one year for diesel and petrol.

The Dutch government also outlined the scenarios it is prepping for, ranging from manageable disruption to a full-scale supply crisis.

The government said it is “explicitly considering a further deterioration of the situation and is preparing for this.”

The Port of Rotterdam is a major European energy hub, home to five large-scale oil refineries and significant chemical processing industries.

The government said there are currently no acute shortages in the Netherlands.

“The Netherlands and the EU have relatively large strategic oil stocks. Together with the European production of diesel and kerosene, this constant disruption can be used for several months to more than a year in current demand,” it said. “However, Europe and the Netherlands are facing increasing disruptions in the supply of kerosene and, to a lesser extent, diesel.”

The Dutch government said it would activate the first phase ⁠of an oil crisis plan involving enhanced monitoring of energy markets and preparations for further measures. It also announced a relief package worth about 970 million ⁠euros ($1.14 billion).

International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said on April 16 that Europe has “maybe 6 weeks or so [of] jet fuel left,” due to supply issues caused by the ongoing U.S.–Israeli war with Iran.

Briol warned that flight cancellations could occur soon if oil flows remain stymied by the restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes.

If the Strait of Hormuz isn’t reopened, he said that for Europe, “I can tell you soon we will hear the news that some of the flights from city A to city B might be canceled as a result of lack of jet fuel.”

‘Sobering’

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents about 80 percent of global air traffic, warned of potential disruptions, in an April 17 statement.

“The IEA’s assessment of potential jet fuel shortages is sobering,” IATA’s director general,Willie Walsh, said. “We have also estimated that by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel.”

On April 14, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU’s bill for “fossil fuel imports” had risen by more than 22 billion euros ($24 billion) since the start of the conflict.

Since the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Feb. 28 and Iran began targeting commercial ships in response, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which runs along Iran’s coast, has slowed to a near standstill.

Oil prices rose during early April 20 trading amid worsening tensions in the Iran war, trading at about $95 per barrel after dipping below $90 on April 17.

On April 13, the U.S. Navy imposed a blockade on ships entering and leaving Iranian ports, and the first round of peace talks between the United States and Iran ended without a resolution.

On April 17, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi announced that Iranian forces would cease restricting shipping traffic via the Strait of Hormuz during the 10-day ceasefire period between Israel and Lebanon. This coincided with a drop in oil prices on April 17.

Iran’s military said on April 18 that it had reinstated “strict military oversight” over the strait because of Washington’s naval blockade. This created uncertainty in markets and pushed up oil prices on April 20.

Iran is moving to formalize tighter control over the Strait of Hormuz, outlining plans to charge transit fees and restrict vessels from countries it deems hostile.

Iranian officials set out what they described as a “Strait of Hormuz management plan: from banning Israeli vessels to charging fees in the national currency,” Iran’s semi-official Mehr News Agency said in an April 19 post on Telegram.

U.S. President Donald Trump said on April 20 that he is unlikely to renew the truce with Iran if a deal to end the war is not reached before the April 22 deadline.

The ceasefire, which was announced on April 7, expires on “Wednesday evening Washington time,” Trump told Bloomberg in a phone interview.

It’s “highly unlikely” that he will extend it if no deal is reached before then, Trump said.

The United States has asked 27 vessels to turn around or return to Iranian ports since beginning its blockade in the Gulf of Oman in the Arabian Sea, the U.S. Central Command said on April 20.

Pre-Existing Conditions

Though the war in Iran and the restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz have impacted the European jet fuel supply, a report last year by the IATA highlighted existing issues the continent was already facing in the area.

IATA said that the closure of European refineries as part of the EU and various state governments’ push to switch to renewable energy had displaced “a significant amount of supply that must be replaced through imports, a task that is becoming increasingly complex due to infrastructure limitations and rising logistical challenges.”

The transport association added that among transport sectors, “aviation is particularly vulnerable due to its heavy reliance on fossil-based jet fuel and the absence of scalable alternatives in the near term.”

The report said geopolitical tensions have “further magnified these challenges for airlines,” citing the added pressure from sanctions on Russian oil and gas, on which large swathes of the continent had previously relied.

Alongside those sanctions, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure and tightened rules targeting third-country processors, such as China, India, and Turkey, have further tightened margins and raised procurement costs.

“While market participants may find ways to circumvent these restrictions, a short-term impact is unavoidable given the scale of Russian exports,” the IATA added.

Guy Birchall, Naveen Athrappully, and Emel Alkan contributed to this report.