New cancer cases globally are set to rise over the next three decades, according to a report released Friday by the WHO’s cancer agency, which blamed the increase on factors like weight gain and tobacco use.
“Over 35 million new cancer cases are predicted in 2050, a 77 percent increase from the estimated 20 million cases in 2022,” the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) said in the report. “The rapidly growing global cancer burden reflects both population aging and growth, as well as changes to people’s exposure to risk factors, several of which are associated with socioeconomic development. Tobacco, alcohol, and obesity are key factors behind the increasing incidence of cancer, with air pollution still a key driver of environmental risk factors.”
IARC estimates there will be 9.7 million cancer deaths in 2022, in addition to the 20 million new cases. Around one in five individuals are estimated to develop cancer in their lifetime, with roughly one in nine men and one in 12 women dying from the disease.
Ten types of cancer accounted for around two-thirds of new cancers and deaths in 2022. Lung cancer was the most common globally, followed by breast cancer among females, colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, and stomach cancer.
“Lung cancer’s re-emergence as the most common cancer is likely related to persistent tobacco use in Asia,” the report said.
The leading cause of death among people with cancer was lung cancer, which killed nearly one in five affected individuals. Colorectal cancer accounted for the second most deaths, followed by cancers of the liver, breast, and stomach.
For women, breast cancer was the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of related death.
The IARC report comes weeks after another report from the American Cancer Society (ACS) predicted the number of new cancer cases in the United States to exceed over two million this year for the first time. This is equivalent to roughly 5,500 new cancer diagnoses a day.
“This trend is largely affected by the aging and growth of the population and by a rise in diagnoses of 6 of the 10 most common cancers—breast, prostate, endometrial, pancreatic, kidney, and melanoma. (The other 4 top 10 cancers are lung, colon and rectum, bladder, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma),” ACS said in a report.
“In 2024, over 611,000 deaths from cancer are projected for the United States. That’s more than 1,600 deaths from cancer each day.”
Rising Cancer Rates
While some types of cancer were not increasing overall, their incidence was found to be rising in certain subgroups, according to the ACS report.
For instance, colorectal cancer in people under the age of 35, oral cancers associated with HPV, liver cancer in women, and cervical cancer in females between the ages of 30 and 44 were observed to be increasing.
Dr. Yuhong Dong, an infectious disease specialist and columnist at The Epoch Times, said that the increase in cervical and oral cancers could be traced to heightened sexual activity.
“In recent decades, there is an emerging trend that people tend to be engaged in sexual activity at a young age and have multiple sexual partners, which can increase the likelihood of HPV infection,” she said.
“It is well-recognized that HPV is a carcinogenic virus. The role of HPV in causing cancer is primarily due to its cancer-inducing proteins. These proteins break down the body’s tumor-fighting mechanisms, leading to rapid and uncontrolled cell multiplication.”
The ACS report also stated that cancer patients “are getting younger.” In 1995, people aged 65 and above accounted for 61 percent of cancer diagnoses. This fell to 58 percent in 2019-2020.
“In contrast, people ages 50 to 64 are growing in numbers for both the population at large and the population of people with cancer.”
Among three age groups—65 and above, 50 to 64, and individuals younger than 50—overall cancer incidence rose between 1995 and 2020 only among those below the age of 50.
Cancer Rate Disparity
IARC found a striking contrast between nations with a high human development index (HDI) and those with a low HDI. Nations with high incomes tend to be in the high HDI category, while those with low incomes typically rank lower in the index.
The impact of cancer increase “will not be felt evenly across countries of different HDI levels. Those who have the fewest resources to manage their cancer burdens will bear the brunt of the global cancer burden,” said Freddie Bray, head of the cancer surveillance branch at IARC.
The agency gave an example of breast cancer to highlight the disparity between high and low HDI nations. In rich nations, one in two women are expected to be diagnosed with breast cancer in their lifetime, which is far higher than the rate of one in 27 in poor nations.
However, the death rate of breast cancer in high HDI nations is one in 71, lower than the low HDI nations, which have a rate of one in 48.
“Despite the progress that has been made in the early detection of cancers and the treatment and care of cancer patients, significant disparities in cancer treatment outcomes exist not only between high and low-income regions of the world but also within countries,” said Dr. Cary Adams, head of Union for International Cancer Control.
He called on governments to “prioritize cancer care” and ensure that everyone has access to “affordable, quality services.”